Saturday, December 20, 2025

Analysis for the max magnitude per 1 km as the magnitude capacitor

 I regarded the record update of the specific depth per 10km of the specific latitude coordinate as the state changed. In fact, huge earthquakes like M9 bring out many aftershocks suddenly. 

But, it seems each grid of (i, j,k)=(unit longitude,unit latitude, 10km) may be the pie of domino as the energy capacitor. So far, I have treated earthquake data as the combination of  latitude coordinate and depth(per 10km). And, the max of magnitude per place is regarded as the max limitation reflecting the information of the geological structure.

For the domino analysis for some areas having only shallow epicenters, I must have changed the mesh of grids more detailed. But, it means the analysis must become more difficult and more complex. I finally have realized I should return to trace the maximum magnitude change trend per 1km in chronological order as data observation.

The result of it for 三陸沖 (Sanriku Oki) including the epicenter of M9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 is as below,

Sorry for the tiny letters. This table includes all magnitude data of 0-50km depths of the  三陸沖 (Sanriku Oki) area between 1919-2025/12/12. Rows are dates of occurrence date, and columns are epicenter's depth per 1 km. Values of the table are the max magnitude at that point. Blank means no data or less than M6.0. Right side columns are the max values of 1km-50km or 0-50km. This table shows that max value updates had been done in all depths between 1km-24km(the epicenter depth of M9) except 23km until M9 occurrence day of 2011/3/11. The blank cells of the upper section show it. 






This table is an excerpt, with 1-50km columns and the bottom part omitted. The last 4 columns consist of 2 parts of "including M9"/"Except M9". Each column part consists of 2 columns of "Max for all"/"Max except 0km". The reason why M9 was omitted in one part is that its inclusion would make the max of all subsequent occurrence dates M9 (Refer to the bottom section of the table below). Magnitude values are shown by using a color scale.  The color scale ranges from light green (M6.3) to red (M9).
 The comparison between the last adjacent columns indicates that magnitude values of 0km are different from others. It may be one of the factors of outliers of G-R law. The difference between "0km" and others should be caused by "0km" being open end without a deeper layer. To emphasize it, magnitudes of 0km are shown only on the occurrence date in "0km" column. 

Below is the bottom section of the table. After M9 (red) in 2011/3/11, max for all data became all M9.0 jumping up from M7.3. Max except M9 became M7.3 increased from M7.2. It is another factor of outliers of G-R law. As G-R law is valid strictly in micro areas, I believe it should be also valid in macro areas. The reason why the law seemingly fails should be that charged energy as stress was released in M9 like a domino.  
The latest value of the max magnitude per 1 km should become the risk index of the next earthquake's magnitude/occurrence timing.

Below is the middle section of the table focused on before and after M9. Yellow colored cells show the 2nd longest silent term of 0km (The 1st longest one has been continuing since 2011/4/14 as shown in the table above). It indicates the 2nd one may be one of the significant signs of M9 as the charging term of stress energy. 
As I wrote above,  max value updates had been done in all depths between 1km-24km except 23km until M9. Especially, 8km/9km/12km/29km/36km increased the day before or 2days ago of M9 occurrence as indicated by thick frames. M6.2 of 12km was an aftershock of M7.3 in 2011/3/9. M7.3 of 8km jumped up from M6.8 as shown by the sudden color change 2days ago of M9. Others in 2011/3/10 seems they were also the aftershocks of M7.3. The last 3 updates of 1km-24km except 23km occurred between the last 2 days. It seems the rapid updates around the shallow depth of 10km may be valid as the sign of the huge earthquake.  Especially, the value M6.8 of 9km had no update as M6.2 since 1929. It may be likened to the last column of 9km falling down to support East Japan just before M9.

Friday, December 19, 2025

Long break from my blog because of PC trouble (updated in 2026/01/05)

 Sorry to say, because of my  old PC trouble, the update of this blog must be on a long break.

Though the new chromebook is fine, it doesn't have excel.  It's difficult to make complex graphs using the spread sheet of my chromebook. 

I ordered a new battery for my old PC. But, it will be delivered next year.

I'm going to work on earthquake study with gemini for the long break.

See you later.

P.S. As the exchange of the PC battery couldn't recover the function, the next update should be after several months until a new new PC getting.

  => I have got a new PC.  It was a very hard work to set up it with a local account in Windows11. It must never have achhieved it without gemini support.  

Monday, December 15, 2025

MD-T chart in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡

MD-T chart in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡 (Aomori Pref., Mutsu Bay & Tsugaru Strait)



MD chart in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡

MD chart in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡 (Aomori Pref., Mutsu Bay & Tsugaru Strait)



Dragon chart in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡

Dragon chart in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡  (Aomori Pref., Mutsu Bay & Tsugaru Strait)



Sum of Magnitude per 1day in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡

Sum of Magnitude per 1day in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡 (Aomori Pref., Mutsu Bay & Tsugaru Strait)

note : Horizontal axis isn't linear.



Distribution of Magnitude in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡

Distribution of Magnitude in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡 (Aomori Pref., Mutsu Bay & Tsugaru Strait)



Distribution of Depth in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡

Distribution of Depth in 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡 (Aomori Pref., Mutsu Bay & Tsugaru Strait)

Most counts deeper than 60km are included by ones in 青森県三八上北地方 (Sanpachi Kamikita region, Aomori Pref.) 



Area map of 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡

Area map of 青森県・陸奥湾・津軽海峡 (Aomori Pref., Mutsu Bay & Tsugaru Strait)is defined for epicenter's analysis as below, 



Saturday, December 13, 2025

Counts of occurrence per depth in 青森県東方沖

Counts of occurrence per depth in 青森県東方沖 (Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.) is shown as below graph,

1km curve has stopped with the 1st longest silent term in this mohth. During the long silent term, 60km curve overtook 1km curve. Not only 60km curve, but also 60km / 70km / 50km / 30km / 40km /20km /10km curves is following behind 1km curve since the septet junction among 10km-70km curves just after M7.9 of 1km in 1968. The M7.9 is the greatest one of all depths. The M7.9 is worried if it may become  the trigger of the huge called as "Off the Coast of Hokkaido and Sanriku Subsequent Earthquake Advisory".

By using a chart that includes such multi-junctions, it may be possible to predict the occurrence count of main aftershocks. This can be achieved by identifying the number of junctions where the cumulative frequency curves of different depths intersect during a rapid increase.

  • 1km(red)⋯ The count is the 2nd. There was the 4th longest silent term of 1km between 1927-1929 (count as 1213). There were both the 7th/9th longest silent term between 1931- 1933 (count as 18-19)/ 1934-1936 (count as 22-23). After these long silent terms, each count increased with a steep slope. There was a rapid increase of 1km caused by M7.9 of 1km (count as 247) in 1968. The M7.9 is the greatest one of all depths.  The silent terms became longer and longer. There was the longest silent term between 1998-2025 (count as 333-334  this month). Because of the longest one, 1km was overtaken by 60km curve.
  • 60km (blue)⋯The count is the 1st. The count of 60km increased steadily until 1967. M7.5 of 10km occurred as the start point of septet junction among 10km-70km curves. The rapid increase of 60km started at count 64 before the M7.5 six hours ago. After the rapid increase, the count of 60km has been increasing steadily again, and overtook 1km curve during the longest silent term of 1km. The largest one of 60km is M7.1 in 1945 (count as 12).
  • 70km(purple)⋯The count is the 3rd. 70km/60km curves were overtaking and being overtaken before 1968. After the rapid increases by the M7.5 of 10km, 70km curve was following behind 60km curve. The largest one of 70km is M6.6 of 1945 (count as 50).
  • 50km (light blue)⋯The count is the 4th. There were the 1st/2nd longest silent terms between 1930-1934  (count as 9-10)/1936-1939 (count as 12-13). After each long silent term, the count increased with a steep slope. Furthermore, there was also the 3rd longest silent term between 1944-1946 (count as 22-23).  50km curve was caught up with by 70km curve  in 1950s, and was overtaken. After the rapid increase of 50km on the septet junction among 10km-70km curves in 1968, 50km/70km curves overtook and were overtaken until  around 1990. But, after that, 50km curve was overtaken by 70km curve again even though there was M7.0 of 50km in 1971 (count as 84). The largest one of 50km is M7.5 in 2025 (count as 289 updated 6 days ago). The count has been increased rapidly by the aftershocks of the M7.5 from count 287 to 293 (until 2025/12/10).
  • 30km (yellow green)⋯The count is the 5th. 30km curve is following behind 1km curve. There were 3 major longest silent terms of the 2nd/4th/3rd before the M7.5 of 10km on the septet junction among 10km-70km curves in 1968.The 2nd one was between 1926-1930 (count as 3-4). The 4th one was between 1932-1936 (count as 7-8). The 3rd was between 1936-1940 (count as 8-9). After that, the count of 30km increased with a steep slope steadily until 1968. In 1968, the M7.9 of 10km occurred, and it induced the rapid increase of 30km (count as 49-70). After that, the count of 30km is increasing similarly to the 50km curve. The largest one of 30km is M6.8 in 1922(count as 2).
  • 40km (green)⋯The count is the 6th. 40km curve is following behind 10km curve before the M7.5 of 10km on the septet junction among 10km-70km curves in 1968. M6.8 of 30km occurred in 1922.  The 2nd longest silent term was between 1923-1927 (count as 2-3). At the start point of the silent term, M6.2 of 40km occurred in 1923. The 2nd one of 40km was covered with the 2nd one of 30km. The 1st one of 40km was between 1934-1938 (count as 12-13).   After the sequential earthquakes of M6.3/M6.2 of 40km in 1944/1945 (count as 21-22), there was a rapid increase in 1945 until M6.6 of 40km (count as 26) . About 80 days later, there was the next rapid increase in 1945 (count as 27-31). Then, silent terms became longer until 1968. The main rapid increase (count as 64-78) occurred at the septet junction among 10km-70km curves just after M7.9 of 1km. After that, 40km curve is increasing behind 50km curve. The largest one of 40km is the M6.6 in 1945.
  • 20km(orange)⋯The count is the 7th. After the sequential longest silent terms of the 2nd/3rd/4th/6th between 1920-1939 (count as 3-7), there was a rapid increase of 20km in 1943 (count as 12-15). Then, the silent terms became long again. The main rapid  increase count as 44-70) occurred at the septet junction among 10km-70km curves just after M7.9 of 1km in 1968. After that, 20km curve increases behind 30km curve. The 1st longest silent tem was between 1977-1994 (count as 99-100). The largest one of 20km is M7.1 in 1943 (count as 12).
  • 10km(yellow)⋯The count is the 8th. 10km curve is following behind 1km curve. Until  the septet junction among 10km-70km curves just after M7.9 of 1km in 1968, 10km curve was following almost keeping the count rank as the 2nd or 3rd. After that, the silent terms became long. The 1st/2nd one was between 1978-1997 (count as 101-102)/2019-2025 (count as 118-not yet). The 2nd longest one of 10km is almost covered by the 1st one of 1km between 1998-2025. The largest one of 10km is M7.5 in 1968 (count as 72).
  • others⋯omitted.
  • Wednesday, December 10, 2025

    Data Catalog of Earthquakes around Tohoku of Japan Area has been updated related with M7.6 in 2025/12/8

     As I noticed the skip of the catalog data around Tohoku area of Japan, I have updated one of 青森県東方沖 of Tohoku area. Because, there was M7.6 in the area 3 days ago. So, I have added the special comment to some pages related with the M7.6. 

    MD-T chart in 青森県東方沖

    MD-T chart in  青森県東方沖 (Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.)

    There has been much blank space in recent years. It means it may be the term for the charge of earthquake energy.



    MD chart in 青森県東方沖

    MD chart in 青森県東方沖 (Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.)



    Dragon chart in 青森県東方沖

    Dragon chart in 青森県東方沖 (Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.)just before M7.6 on 2025/12/8.

    There are 3 characteristics as below,

    • The plots of 1km/10km are on a line a slope of 1.0.⋯There has been no earthquake of 1km since 1998 in this area. There has been 10km earthquake swarm(*) of the M7.6. 
    • The plots of 10km/20km/30km/70km are on a line.⋯There has been an 10km/20km/30km earthquake swarms(*) of the M7.6.
    • The plots of 30km/40km/50km are on a line.⋯The M7.6 was occurred in 50km, and updated the record of 50km (M7.0 in 1971 was the old record) . There has been M4.0 and M3.9 in 40km. But, the sum isn't satisfied with my difinition for earthquake swarms(*). There has been 30km earthquake swarm(*) of the M7.6.
    (*)  Earthquake swarm is defined as earthquakes per depth within 24 hours in this case.



    M7.6 on 2025/12/8 changed the record of the maximum magnitude of 50km from M6.0.

    The new dragon chart is below,
    The 50km plot shifted vertically and is now located on a line between 80km parallel to the line between 40km/50km.






    Sum of Magnitude per 1day in 青森県東方沖

    Sum of Magnitude per 1day in 青森県東方沖 (Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.)

    note : Horizontal axis isn't linear.



    Distribution of Magnitude in 青森県東方沖

    Area map of 青森県東方沖 (Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.)is defined for epicenter's analysis as below,  


    The plot of M7.6 (ln 7.6=0.88) is an outlier on the upside.

    Distribution of Depth in 青森県東方沖 Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.

    Distribution of Depth in 青森県東方沖 (Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.)


    The center of the cracking is still around 60 km, and the drop in the graph at 10 km suggests that this area has enough capacity of the stocked energy still.

    Area map of 青森県東方沖

    Area map of 青森県東方沖(Eastern offshore of Aomori Pref.)is defined for epicenter's analysis as below,  



    Friday, December 5, 2025

    Counts of occurrence per depth in 茨城県沖

    Counts of occurrence per depth in 茨城県沖 (Offshore Ibaraki Pref.) is shown as below graph,

    The count of 50km is the 1st. 10km/40km/30km curves are following. The count of 1km is the 7th. The longest silent terms of 1km/10km were broken by the M9.0 The great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. They should be one of the signs of the M9.0 as same as ones in the Pacific coastal area of Eastern Japan. The aftershocks didn't only generate the triple junction  among 1km/30km/60km, but also M7.6 of 40km as the greatest one of all depths. 

    • 1km(red)⋯ The count is the 7th. There was a rapid increase of the count of 1km as 21-43, as the aftershocks of M7.1, counted 28 of 40km in 1923. M7.2 became the trigger of M7.2 counted as 98 of 1km in 1924. After that, the silent terms of 1km became slightly longer. But, M7.0 of 1km made the count accelerate again since the count of 267 in 1938. The silent terms of 1km became longer dramatically since the 50km curve overtook the 1km curve, counting 485 in 1976. The longest silent term of 1km is between 1993-2011 (as counted 488-489). The end point of the longest silent term was brought about by the aftershocks of the M9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. The similar phenomenon of the long silent term was widely observed just before the M9.0 in the Pacific coastal area of Eastern Japan. It means these long silent terms should be one of the signs of the M9.0. The largest one of 1km is M7.2 in 1924.
    • 10km(yellow)⋯The count is the 2nd. 10km curve was following behind 1km curve with a similar pattern to the 1km one before the M9.0 in 2011. The silent terms of 10km became longer since the 60km curve overtook the 10km curve, around counting 165 in 1962. The longest silent term of 10km between 1996-2011 (as counted 183-184). After the M9.0, 10km curve increased far more than 1km curve. The largest one of 10km is M6.9, counted 94 of 10km in 1938.
    • 20km(orange)⋯The count is the 5th. 20km curve was also following behind 1km curve  with a similar pattern to the 1km one before the M9.0 in 2011. After the M9.0, 20km curve overtook 1km curve, counted 611 of 20km in 2015. The largest one of 20km is M6.7, counted 266 in 2011.
    • 30km(yellow green)⋯The count is the 4th. 30km curve is following 40km curve with relatively steady silent terms. 30km curve increased in 2011, and overtook 1km curve as counted 498 in 2011. There was a triple junction among 1km/30km/60km. The  largest one of 30km is M7.0, counted 326 in 1982.
    • 40km(green)⋯The count is the 3rd.Once, 40km was overtaken by 1km curve after the M7.1 of 40km, counted 28 in 1923. But, 40km curve overtook 1km with steadily increase before and after 50km curve overtaking around 1976. Then, 40km curve is following behind 50km curve. M7.6 of 40km increased rapidly. Even though the M7.6 is the greatest one of all depths, the increase was less than the one of 50km. M7.6 counted 801 of 40km.
    • 50km(light blue)⋯The count is the 1st. 50km was following behind 1km curve. After the M6.9 of 10km in 1938, the steady increase made 50km curve overtake 1km curve around 1976. 50km curve didn't only overtake 40km curve, but also 1km curve in 2011 again. The  largest one of 50km is M7.0, counted 995 in 2008.
    • others⋯omitted.

    Wednesday, December 3, 2025

    Earthquake analysis discussed with AI Gemini (free ver.) [updated] Abstract English ver. (only text) added

     I have tried the making  of a mathematical model of Earthquake potential as a image.

    But, I have a lot of difficulty for the copy of the result. So, I have released it as the screen shot only in Japanese.

    If you would like to see them even though the language wall, please see the links below,

    https://titanquake-amature.fc2.net/blog-entry-2903.html

    https://titanquake-amature.fc2.net/blog-entry-2904.html

     Geminiによる三陸沖地震ポテンシャル評価(要約) [updated]

    => English ver.(only text)












    <caution> 

    An AI-generated summary of the model content, simplified for easy understanding by anyone, is available at the following link. While it may be slightly overrated, it should give you a general overview of the model's concept.

    The copyright of this document belongs to the author. Although AI tools were used for creation and editing, the content has been supervised and structured by the author.

    The comments on the final page are generated by AI and do not represent the author's opinion.

    There are currently no plans to release additional specific data analysis based on this model.




    Thank you.

    Best regards,



    Tuesday, December 2, 2025

    MD-T chart in 茨城県沖

    MD-T chart in 茨城県沖 (Offshore Ibaraki Pref.)




    MD chart in 茨城県沖

    MD chart in 茨城県沖 (Offshore Ibaraki Pref.)



    Dragon chart in 茨城県沖

     Dragon chart in 茨城県沖 (Offshore Ibaraki Pref.)




    Sum of Magnitude per 1day in 茨城県沖

    Sum of Magnitude per 1day  in 茨城県沖 (Offshore Ibaraki Pref.)


    note : Horizontal axis isn't linear. 




    Distribution of Magnitude in 茨城県沖

     Distribution of Magnitude in 茨城県沖 (Offshore Ibaraki Pref.)



    Distribution of Depth in 茨城県沖

     Distribution of Depth in 茨城県沖 (Offshore Ibaraki Pref.)



    Area map of 茨城県沖

    Area map of 茨城県沖 (Offshore Ibaraki Pref.)is defined for epicenter's analysis as below, 


     

    特異点その1 壱岐・対馬の震源群の解析

     気象庁データベースで壱岐・対馬の震源群は発生順に下表の9件のみです。 グリッド要素とは震源を東経(0.1度単位)・北緯(0.1度単位)・深さ(1km)単位の小ブロックを指します。表の右端にある東経・北緯は四捨五入して丸める前の値です。最大段数については後述します。 まずは東経・...